A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
