Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
